How I use large language models in my writing process

Ruminathans are pretty rare. I publish one about every two months on average, with high variance. I could probably increase my output substantially if I used generative AI (gAI) to the fullest. The reasons I don’t are:

  • The output of gAI is persistently not up to my quality standards.
  • I want to exercise my writing and thinking ability, so outsourcing that work to gAI would be like asking a robot to go jogging on my behalf.
  • I genuinely enjoy writing and thinking, so outsourcing that work to gAI would be like asking a robot to make love on my behalf.

That said, here are some ways I use gAI in the writing process: What it does and doesn’t do for me, and what I think that reveals about the future of essay-writing as a human endeavor.

Research

As the quality of traditional search declines in the face of the SEO arms race and the explosion of (gAI-produced) slop, it’s easier to find empirical data by posing research questions in ChatGPT (I’m using a paid version). In my recent posts about macroeconomics it helped me find the right databases. You have to verify that the links exist, that they are reputable, and that they say what ChatGPT says they say.

It’s far too easy, though, to use this “research” to cherry-pick data. You can ask ChatGPT to “Find data that supports [INSERT PET THESIS HERE]!” and it will oblige. It won’t push back and warn you that the balance of the evidence undermines your pet thesis.

You can, of course, prompt it to evaluate the available data. But that reveals the limitation: You can prompt it to produce anything you want. Asking it to evaluate the available data implies that you are looking for a balanced assessment. It will oblige, leaving you wondering if it just mirrors the biases embedded in your own word choice.

An easily confused sparring partner

Exploring a single topic in a longer conversation with ChatGPT requires a lot of care. The fact that it does not get meaning becomes apparent when you whiplash it around. Ask it to defend a thesis, then defend the antithesis, and then ask it to revert to arguing the original thesis: After that back and forth, it tends to get very muddled about which argument supports which position. It neither notices inconsistency nor is it embarrassed by it.

Say what you will about humans and their ornery unwillingness to update their priors: You can count on them to stick to their guns, and that’s what makes a good sparring partner.

ChatGPT is not a real sparring partner: Dance around it for a minute or two, and it will start punching itself in its tattooed-grin face.

Flattery will get you everywhere

Speaking of its ever-chipper attitude: Once I write a finished draft of an essay, I ask ChatGPT to evaluate it for clarity, elegance, and originality. Even 5.0, which is supposed to have overcome the obsequiousness of prior versions, is still an inveterate flatterer. And hey, it’s nice to hear some positive feedback.

To its credit, if I push a half-written fragment through, it identifies that it’s flawed and provides some feedback about how to improve it. But its concrete suggestions are largely unusable: It will never sit you down and say: “I don’t understand your point” or “This is too clunky to be salvageable” or “Stop beating this dead horse.” And that’s feedback that you need to hear sometimes.

Bottom-line: This step adds very little value to the writing process. I still do it because, yes, the charitable feedback provides a little pick-me-up after I’ve reached a draft. And I’m still hoping that someday it sounds a big alarm… but I’m not holding my breath.

My sworn enemy

You can, of course, prompt it to take a critical view. My preferred approach is to ask it to write a 300-word review of the article from the perspective of the author’s sworn foe.

The result is a cold slap in the face. There’s little of substance in the critique: usually it does not identify anything – neither stylistic nor content-related – that I did not anticipate and consciously choose. I find this step helpful, though, insofar as it shows me how someone might react emotionally.

To some extent, I can anticipate the perspective. There are people who are, shall we say, uncharitably disposed towards me. I can – equally uncharitably – simulate their voices in my head without ChatGPT’s help. But after the initial flattery, my bot-enemy’s perspective is a salutary palette-cleanser.

After my foe has weighed in, I usually ask ChatGPT which of his critiques are fair. If I agree and can make some changes without too much effort, I do so, but usually not the changes ChatGPT suggests.

The “best available editor”

Ethan Mollick, one of gAI’s biggest boosters, introduced the concept of the “best available human” to argue in favor of widespread use of gAI. “Sure,” says Mollick, “the most skilled humans can still do many tasks better than AI. But the issue is not what the most skilled humans can do but what the best available human can do. And much of the time, the skilled humans aren’t available.”

Frankly, I’ve been underwhelmed by Mollick’s writing. In this case it seems like he’s unfamiliar with the concept of negative numbers and the value “zero” as a valid solution to many problems. If the best available human would do a billion dollars of damage, and an AI agent only does a million, the correct choice is to abandon whatever the f#*k you’re doing, not outsource the problem to AI.  

Still, in Mollick’s spirit: I’ve tried to prompt ChatGPT to be an editor at a national magazine who is willing to read my article and ask guiding questions and then give me a thumbs up or down for publishing it. An actual national-league editor is not available, but her simulacrum is.

The editor succeeds at asking a set of interesting questions, and it can be prompted to stop asking and reach a verdict. As interesting as some of the questions are, the problem remains: It will not shoot me down. And sometimes, an idea has to be shot down.

Helpful, question-led suggestions – while perhaps leading to incremental improvements – serve only to lead me further down a rabbit-hole, when what I really need to do is cut my losses and move on to the next idea.

The value of blind spots

We all have our blind spots. They come naturally from being an embodied soul with a particular life history. What we think and what we write is just as much a product of what we don’t see as what we do see.

That’s what makes conversation so compelling – and reading and writing is a form of conversation. Through others’ eyes we can peer into our own blind spots. But it’s necessarily their own constrained perspectives that give them that vantage point. An outsider’s perspective is not valuable only for the unfamiliar ideas she brings; it’s equally valuable – sometimes more valuable – for being unburdened by the ideas the insiders take for granted.

In a good conversation – including one with an editor – your partner will point out your blind spots unprompted. I’ve not seen ChatGPT do this. I’ve tried. This essay went through the process I described above, intentionally without this section on blind spots, which I had mentally sketched out but not committed to pixels. The idea of “blind spots” lay in the incomplete essay’s blind spot. ChatGPT did not point it out (nor did it point out any other noteworthy blind spots).  

You can, of course, prompt the bot to look for blind spots. An explicit prompt (“Look for blind spots”) does not work: You get no fresh insights. You can ask it to write a comment from a particular writer’s perspective (“Imagine you’re George Orwell”) and it does better, but mostly it delivers a superficial emulation of the style, not a fresh perspective. It’s nowhere near the experience of being confronted with someone who makes completely different assumptions from your own.

Large language models seem to encompass every perspective, and the perspective from everywhere is a perspective from nowhere.

I could easily use gAI to create more output, more quickly. But I struggle to see what service I’d be doing others or myself.

Making machines smarter or ourselves dumber? Why I’m betting on model collapse.

If the emergence of artificial intelligence is as profound a development as both its boosters and its doomsayers predict, then we all need to make some pretty important decisions: bets about where we invest our savings, our time, and the time of our children.

In decision theory, you choose a course of action from several options based on the expected value: You look at representative scenarios, value them in whatever terms you want (monetarily or in terms of your personal utility), and weight the scenarios by their respective probabilities of occurrence. Then you choose the option with the highest expected value.

I’m acutely aware of the limitations of this approach to making decisions. But let’s take it as a given for the moment: What are the representative scenarios for how the world evolves with AI? I’ve been thinking about three:

AI becomes smarter than us: We train models that outperform us humans at every conceivable task. The emperor really has clothes.

We become dumber than AI: We train ourselves to no longer appreciate the difference between “intelligence” and its parody. The emperor has no clothes, but nobody is capable of calling him out.

AI fizzles: Whatever mechanisms have made AI appear smarter from iteration to iteration cease to deliver even marginal improvements and even lead to deteriorating performance (aka “model collapse“). The emperor has no clothes, and we’re willing and able to call him naked.

Our next step would normally be to come up with probabilities of each of these scenarios occurring and then devise some strategies with respective payoffs for the three scenarios.

But this approach makes sense when there are positive outcomes. It doesn’t matter what the probabilities are, if all but one of the payouts are zero (or less) under any conceivable strategy, then those scenarios aren’t even worth planning for.

I’m struggling with imagining any positive payoffs in the first two scenarios.

Society works because we have a stake in each other’s existence. If we become unnecessary to each other – if we no longer need to tie ourselves into a web of reciprocity – then we will become charity cases either for whoever controls the “Artificial General Intelligence” or for the AGI itself. Being interdependent, as we are now, is risky; being just plain dependent is a blind alley. I cannot see this as a positive outcome.

I don’t believe this scenario is very probable. But it doesn’t matter. No matter what its probability, it has 0 (or even negative) outcome value. Unless all scenarios have non-positive outcomes, there’s no sense in planning for it.

If you put a gun to my head and asked which of the three scenarios was the most probable, I’d have to go for scenario two. If the overwhelming majority of people do not see a difference between real intelligence and its parody, they cannot value that difference. And so in that scenario, I will also become a charity case because I cannot sell anything anyone wants to buy. Unfortunately, that feels like the direction we’re heading in. Nor am I alone in thinking that.

That is why I don’t think the elaborate game of decision theory makes sense here. There is only one scenario that has positive outcomes. I’m placing my bets on AI fizzling and the strategies that optimize for that scenario: Maintaining my skill set without AI assistance. Investing in a broad range of asset classes. And helping my children learn critical thinking and, hopefully, the courage to call emperors naked. And maybe if we all take that approach, we’ll make Scenario 2 less likely.

The “inevitable” march of technological progress

My daughter and I got a kick out of this relic at a visit to Munich’s technical “Deutsches Museum.”

It’s basically a chemistry set for hands-on learning about nuclear power. Including radioactive material.  

According to the description, this 1950s “toy” was created to spark interest in science generally and specifically in nuclear power, the promising new technology that would unleash our potential thanks to unlimited cheap energy. The box advertises the US government’s $10,000 reward for the discovery of new uranium deposits and includes instructions on how to prospect for uranium ore.

The Atomic Energy Lab was not commercially successful for a variety of reasons, safety concerns not being high on that list. Still, we did not all grow up tinkering with uranium, de-ionizers, and cloud chambers as we prepared to become nuclear engineers. Safety concerns eventually limited how far we developed nuclear technology and how widely we used it. We certainly didn’t put it in under every Christmas tree or advertise it during Saturday morning cartoons.

We make choices about what technology to develop. We make choices about if, when, and how to make technology available to our children. There is nothing inevitable about the march of technological “progress.” There is no destiny to the direction it marches in. When we’re told technological progress is inevitable, that’s an act of persuasion. Believing it is an act of surrender.

Nuclear power is particularly instructive because it has not been an either/or choice. Different countries have taken different approaches. In some, advance has accelerated, in some slowed or reversed. There has been enormous internal political pressure to develop it both for peaceful and for military purposes. There has been enormous external political pressure to prevent rivals, even allies, from developing it for either purpose.

It’s also not a given that we made the “right” set of choices about nuclear energy. There is no obviously correct choice. Maybe if we had all grown up playing with the Atomic Energy Lab, and more resources had flowed to nuclear technology – as they did, for example, in France for many years – we’d have had a few more incidents and moderately higher rates of cancer for a few decades. But with all that tinkering and fired-up imagination we’d already be using near limitless clean fusion energy and wouldn’t be facing a fossil fuel-driven climate crisis. We placed bets. We mitigated some risks and embraced others.

We’re in the process of making a choice to develop generative AI with few restrictions on who uses it, how, when, and for what purposes. We’re putting these little virtual labs into children’s hands. As with the Atomic Energy Lab, we’re not terribly worried about what long-range impacts they might have on our budding scientists.

Somehow, we’re finding the will to invest in a massive reconfiguration of our electrical power generation infrastructure in the service of generative AI, with funds that seemed impossible to find when it came to transforming that same infrastructure with a goal towards sustainability and energy independence. In fact, the generative AI’s voracious need for electrical power is forcing us to reconsider the choices we made around nuclear power.

The choices we’re making are political in the best sense of politics: The mechanisms of collective decision-making we turn to when the win-win solutions of economics aren’t on offer. In the rollout of generative AI, there will be winners and losers. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we’re in the midst of the negotiation about who reaps rewards, who bears the burdens.

As the nuclear power example illustrates, we have the power to choose. The notion that “technological progress is inevitable” is neither a logical nor empirical truth. It’s a strategic negotiating bid in the political battle about what role generative AI will play, and who will benefit from it and who will lose.